Adolfo Laurenti, Visa: Romania enters this period with a more fragile consumer than European average

2026 will be a year of difficult adjustments rather than accelerated growth, and Romania enters this period with a more fragile consumer than the European average. At the same time, digital payments remain one of the few areas with clear structural growth potential, even in a challenging macroeconomic environment, as Adolfo Laurenti, Principal European Economist at Visa, according to Business Review. 

At the European level, Visa data point to a consumer in a state of relative stability: spending is no longer contracting sharply, but neither is it entering a phase of visible acceleration. Romania, however, follows a different trajectory. According to the Visa Spending Momentum Index, spending momentum has stalled, reflecting the combined impact of high inflation, falling real incomes and a sharp deterioration in consumer confidence.

One of the most relevant signals in Visa’s data on Romania is the stronger momentum of credit‑based spending compared with spending funded from current income (debit).

This trend points to:

• the use of credit to cover essential expenses (food, utilities, recurring services);
• a behaviour focused on adapting to income pressure (consumption smoothing);
• a defensive use of credit, rather than a revival in consumption.

The fact that debit payments remain under pressure reflects the compression of disposable incomes, not a disengagement from electronic payments.

“The rise in credit at this stage should not be interpreted as a sign of economic recovery. It primarily reflects a mechanism to absorb the shock to real incomes. This context calls for close monitoring of risks and a focus on responsible products, such as short‑term credit and instalment‑based payment solutions for essential spending,” said Adolfo Laurenti.

Collapsing confidence reshapes consumption patterns

The sharp deterioration in consumer confidence amplifies macroeconomic weakness. Consumers are not only financially constrained, but also far more cautious in their spending decisions.

This caution is reflected in:

• a shift towards essential goods and services;
• smaller‑value but more frequent transactions;
• the postponement of discretionary spending and big‑ticket purchases.

In this context, the number of transactions holds up better than the total value of consumption, although overall growth remains weak and fragile.

„ At this point, the main constraint is not just inflation, but confidence. Without a stabilisation of expectations regarding future incomes, consumer behaviour will remain cautious,” said Adolfo Laurenti.

Why the recovery of debit payments is critical

From an economic perspective, a sustained recovery in debit payments will be the first credible signal that the consumer recession is starting to ease.

Typically, the adjustment process follows a clear sequence:

• stabilisation of real incomes;
• recovery in spending funded from current income (debit);
• normalisation of credit use;
• a gradual rebound in discretionary spending.

Romania is currently in the early stages of this process, in a context characterised by limited fiscal space.

The Romanian banking sector has undergone a profound structural and technological evolution over the past decade. From a fragmented market dependent on physical branches, the industry has matured in 2026 into a consolidated, digital-first model characterized by robust profitability and record-breaking efficiency ratios. Despite regional geopolitical complexities, Romania’s banks continue to report capital adequacy levels well above the European average.

Market concentration: the era of the giants

The year 2026 confirms the dominance of a select group of financial institutions that now control over 75% of the market’s total assets. A multi-year wave of mergers and acquisitions has redrawn the hierarchy, leaving little room for small, niche players.

• Local capital vs. European giants: Banca Transilvania maintains its position as the undisputed leader, proving the strength of homegrown capital. Meanwhile, international groups such as Erste (BCR), BRD (Société Générale), and UniCredit have recalibrated their strategies, focusing heavily on sustainable corporate lending and premium retail segments.

• The exit of smaller banks: High compliance costs and the massive investments required for cybersecurity have pushed many smaller banks to sell their portfolios, resulting in a more stable but less diverse competitive landscape.

The digital revolution: a branch in every pocket

Romania has successfully achieved a “technological leapfrog” in banking services. In 2026, mobile applications are no longer just an accessory; they are the gravitational center of the customer relationship.

1. Instant payments as the standard: Through the efforts of the National Bank of Romania (BNR) and Transfond, instant payments have become the default transfer method for both individuals and businesses, operating 24/7 with zero latency.

2. Algorithm-driven lending: Personal loan decisions that previously took days are now executed in under five minutes. Banks utilize machine learning algorithms that integrate real- time data from the Credit Bureau and the Tax Administration (ANAF).

Macroeconomic stability and rate dynamics

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has played a pivotal role in navigating inflationary waves. In 2026, the market is witnessing a stabilization of the IRCC and ROBOR indices, providing much-needed predictability for mortgage holders.

Green finance and ESG criteria

In 2026, the “Green Mortgage” is no longer a niche product. Driven by EU taxonomy and national climate goals, Romanian banks have aggressively expanded their sustainable portfolios. Financing for energy-efficient housing, photovoltaic parks, and the transition to electric fleets now represents nearly 25% of new corporate lending volumes.

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