The revision is pinpointed by expectations for stronger domestic demand (both on the consumption and investments side) and only marginally by an improved perception of the future external demand (exports).
Thus, CNSP increased the GDP growth forecast for this year from 4.3% under the winter forecast to 5% – a figure that remains within the conservative territory. The Fiscal Council’s head Daniel Daianu pointed to a 5-6% growth rate, and the International Monetary Fund (the latest IFI to update its forecast on Romania) agreed that a 6% economic expansion is possible this year.
Speaking of the details in the CNSP forecast, private consumption is seen as rising by 5.1% this year and 4.9% in 2022 (compared to 3.7% and 4.5% respectively, under the Winter Forecast). Gross fix capital formation would expand by 7% this year to soar by another 8.8% in 2022 (6.5% and 8.8% under Winter Forecast).
Overall, Romania’s economy will expand by an annual average real rate of 4.9% in 2021-2024, under the revised CNSP scenario – compared to 4.75% per annum previously.
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