Romania’s economic recovery in Q3, slower than anticipated

Romania’s gross domestic product (GDP) went up by 5.6% in the third quarter (Q3) of this year compared to the previous quarter (Q2), according to seasonally adjusted data reported by the National Statistics Institute (INS). The recovery is slower than expected after the 12.2% plunge recorded in Q2 versus Q1, amid the COVID-19 lockdown, according to Romania-Insider.com.

Finance minister Florin Citu took the opportunity to brag about the “V-shaped” economic recovery. “I said from the first moment that the economy would recover starting the third quarter and now the data confirms it. Romania avoids the technical recession in 2020 as we promised,” Citu wrote on his Facebook page.

Meanwhile, financial analysts are not equally optimistic. “The flash estimate of third-quarter GDP (3Q20) showed a 5.6% expansion versus the previous quarter, below the 7.2% that the market was expecting. We maintain our 2020 GDP growth forecast at -5.5% and revise next year’s growth from 5.2% to 4.1%”, ING Bank analysts wrote in a note.

Romania’s economy declined by 6% in the third quarter, compared to the same quarter of 2019, after a 10.3% yoy drop in Q2, the INS data also show. The evolution in Q3 is worse than the consensus market expectations (-4.4%) and ING’s forecast (-4%).

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