The European Commission (EC) under its Winter Forecast sticks with the projections for an economic slowdown in Romania during 2019-2020 and forecasts 3.8% GDP growth this year followed by 3.6% advance in 2020. The GDP increase could have hit 4.0% in 2019 (compared to 3.6% predicted in November), the EC admitted, but it is expected to ease in the coming years with “the risks to the forecast being clearly on the downside”, according to Romania-Insider.com.
” Besides a potentially negative impact on credit, the Government’s emergency ordinance in December (114/2018) could have a much broader effect”, the EC reasons. For example, significantly higher unpredictability of the business environment in Romania may have an adverse knock-on effect on investment decisions. When it comes to the baseline scenario, the composition of growth is expected to remain somewhat stable, with private consumption still the primary driver.
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