BT raises Romania’s 2017 GDP growth forecast

Banca Transilvania said that Romania’s economy will expand by 5.2% in 2017, up from a previous forecast of 4.7%, but warned about a strong divergence between overheating consumption and sluggish investments, informs.

Banca Transilvania projects that Romania’s economic growth will slow down to 4.1% in 2018, it said in its macroeconomic scenario November report, quoted by

In 2016, Romania’s economy grew by 4.8% year-on-year, compared to a revised growth rate of 3.9% in 2015.

The government has projected 5.6% GDP growth in 2017.

Banca Transilvania said it does not expect the budget deficit to surpass 3% of GDP this year and in 2018, while for 2019 it forecasts a 2.5%/GDP deficit. Romania’s  consolidated budget showed a deficit equivalent to 2.41% of GDP last year, compared to a shortfall of 1.47% of GDP in 2015.

Among the main risk factors that the Romanian economy will face are the acceleration of the economy accompanied by the return of twin deficits, an expansionary and pro-cyclical, but unsustainable policy-mix and several obstacles in terms of real economic convergence and development, Banca Transilvania said.

The bank sees Romania’s 2017 inflation at 1.1%, while for 2018 the bank expects consumer prices to rise 3.1%.

Romania’s annual inflation rate was 1.8% in September, up from 1.2% in August, according to data from the national statistical board, INS. In its latest inflation report issued in August, Romania’s central bank BNR increased its annual inflation forecasts for this year and next, to 1.9% and 3.2%, respectively, from 1.6% and 3.1% projected earlier.


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